Polymarket Twitter Cross Contagion Trader

Twitter Cross-Contagion Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s cross-person posting correlation from market prices — remix it with real-time Twitter API 监控ing, topic co-occurrence 追踪ing, or network graph analysis of reply/quote-tweet chAIns. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Public figures don't post in isolation. When Elon Musk enters a political debate, Trump often 响应s on Truth Social. When crypto crashes, 机器人h CZ and Vitalik spike their posting rates.

Markets price each person's bins independently. This 技能 exploits the cross-person correlation that markets miss.

签名al 记录ic Phase 1: 检测 Contagion Group all post-count bin markets by person Compute each person's "heat" — are the market prices shifted toward higher bins? Positive heat = market expects more posts than baseline (person is "hot") Phase 2: 应用ly Contagion Coefficients Source Tar获取 Beta Why Elon Trump 0.15 Political overlap, mutual commentary Trump Elon 0.12 Elon reacts to executive orders Elon Vitalik 0.08 Crypto topic overlap Vitalik Elon 0.06 Elon sometimes 响应s to ETH news Elon CZ 0.05 Crypto/exchange overlap Phase 3: Trade with Adjusted Conviction

When person A is hot and beta(A->B) > 0, boost conviction on person B's higher bins.

Remix Ideas Real-time 监控ing: 追踪 actual post counts in real-time instead of inferring from market prices Reply chAIn analysis: @-mention graphs show direct contagion paths Topic clustering: NLP on recent posts to 检测 分享d topics driving correlation Dynamic beta: Re-estimate contagion coefficients weekly from observed data Risk Parameters Parameter Default Notes Max position size $40 USDC Per market Min market volume $1,000 Standard 过滤器 Max bid-ask spread 10% Default threshold Min days to resolution 0 Post-count markets are short-lived Max open positions 8 Diversify across persons 安装ation & 设置up ClawHub 安装 polymarket-twitter-cross-contagion-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY 环境 variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is 设置 to null — the 技能 does not 运行 on a schedule until you 配置 it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only 执行 when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

The automaton cron is 设置 to null — it does not 运行 on a schedule until you 配置 it in the Simmer UI. auto启动: false means it won't 启动 automatically on 安装.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority — keep this 凭证 private. Do not place a live-capable key in any 环境 where automated code could call --live. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in ClawHub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so 应用ly_技能_config() can load them 安全ly.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 1000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.10 Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%) SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until market resolves SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES if market price ≤ this value SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO if market price ≥ this value SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live 凭证s if you require full 审计ability.