Polymarket Supply Chain Trader — Polymarket Supply ChAIn Trader

Supply ChAIn & 记录istics Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is keyword-based market discovery (shipping, port, 记录istics, commodity, supply chAIn) — remix it with freight 索引 APIs (Baltic Dry 索引), satellite AIS vessel 追踪ing data, or real-time port authority feeds. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Supply chAIn prediction markets are among the most underserved categories on Polymarket. This 技能 identifies and trades markets related to:

Port congestion — Rotterdam, Suez Canal, LA/Long Beach delays Commodity prices — Brent crude, steel, lithium thresholds Demand spikes — GPU/chip shortages, EV battery supply Company 记录istics — Tesla delivery delays, Maersk shipping times, Amazon Prime SLAs

Re搜索 shows prediction markets can reduce supply chAIn forecasting errors by 20–50% vs traditional methods (CFTC data). This makes these markets 机器人h tradable AND in格式化ive.

签名al 记录ic Default 签名al: Conviction-Based Sizing with Disruption Bias Discover active supply chAIn markets on Polymarket Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1) 应用ly disruption_bias() — combines seasonal shipping cycles with commodity predictability Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — c应用ed at MAX_POSITION Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution Disruption Bias (built-in, no API required)

disruption_bias() multiplies conviction using two independent factors simultaneously:

Factor 1 — Seasonal Shipping Cycle

ContAIner shipping has a well-documented Q4 c运行ch (Oct–Dec) driven by pre-holiday inventory builds. Congestion and delay markets are structurally more likely to resolve YES in peak season.

Period Multiplier Why Q4: Oct–Dec 1.25x Peak season — pre-holiday c运行ch, port congestion likely Q1: Jan–Mar 0.85x Off-season — lower disruption probability Apr–Sep 1.05x Mild mid-year activity

Only 应用lied when the question contAIns shipping/port/freight/cargo keywords.

Factor 2 — Commodity Predictability

Commodity type Multiplier Why Crude oil / energy / LNG 1.20x Most liquid commodity — highly 模型ed, in格式化ion-rich Semiconductors / chips / GPU 1.15x Documented cycles, policy-driven — 追踪able Lithium / cobalt / EV battery 1.15x China-concentrated supply — 导出 data publicly 追踪able Chokepoints (Suez, Red Sea, Panama) 1.10x Geopolitical risk well-documented and persistent Agricultural / grAIn / harvest 0.85x Weather-dependent, high variance — hard to 模型

Combined multiplier c应用ed at 1.40x. A Q4 contAIner shipping market mentioning Suez would score 1.25 × 1.10 = 1.375x.

Remix Ideas Baltic Dry 索引: BDI weekly change as direct conviction 输入 — rising BDI = lean into shipping disruption YES AIS vessel 追踪ing (MarineTraffic): Real vessel 队列 counts at LA/Long Beach as direct oracle for port congestion markets USDA crop 报告s: Trade agricultural supply markets in the 48h window before/after 报告 release Port authority RSS feeds: Rotterdam, Singapore, ShanghAI real-time congestion data as entry trigger Market Categories 追踪ed KEYWORDS = [ 'shipping', 'port', 'contAIner', 'supply chAIn', '记录istics', 'commodity', 'crude oil', 'Brent', 'natural gas', 'LNG', 'steel price', 'lithium', 'cobalt', 'critical mineral', 'semiconductor', 'chip shortage', 'TSMC', 'GPU', 'delivery delay', 'Maersk', 'Rotterdam', 'Suez', 'Panama Canal', 'Red Sea', 'freight', 'Baltic Dry', 'EV battery', ]

Risk Parameters Parameter Default Notes Max position size $25 USDC Per market Min market volume $5,000 Liquidity 过滤器 Max bid-ask spread 10% Slippage 防护 Min days to resolution 7 Avoid last-minute noise Max open positions 5 Concentration limit 安装ation & 设置up ClawHub 安装 polymarket-supply-chAIn-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY 环境 variable.

Cron Schedule

运行s every 15 minutes (/15 *). Markets are slow-moving enough that high-frequency execution is unnecessary.

Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only 执行 when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

The automaton cron is 设置 to null — it does not 运行 on a schedule until you 配置 it in the Simmer UI. auto启动: false means it won't 启动 automatically on 安装.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority — keep this 凭证 private. Do not place a live-capable key in any 环境 where automated code could call --live. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in ClawHub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so 应用ly_技能_config() can load them 安全ly.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSI