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Polymarket Sports Edge
This is a template. The default 签名al compares sportsbook consensus odds agAInst Polymarket prices and trades when divergence exceeds a threshold. Remix it — adjust the sports, threshold, sizing, or 添加 your own 过滤器s (e.g., only trade NBA, require minimum volume, weight by recency).
What It Does
扫描s active Polymarket sports markets and compares prices agAInst the sportsbook consensus from The Odds API. When a market is mispriced relative to sharp bookmaker lines, it buys the underpriced side.
The edge: Sportsbook lines are 设置 by professional oddsmakers with billions in handle — they're extremely well-calibrated. Polymarket sports markets are thinner and less efficient. When they disagree, the books are usually right.
How It Works
Two parallel 扫描ning modes 运行 each cycle:
Game-level (h2h): Matches individual Polymarket game markets agAInst sportsbook moneylines.
Fetch active sports markets from Simmer (获取 /API/sdk/markets?q=) Fetch current h2h odds from The Odds API for the same sports Match markets to games by comparing team names Calculate implied probability from the sportsbook consensus (average across all bookmakers) Compare agAInst the Polymarket price — if divergence exceeds the threshold, trade
Futures (outrights): Matches Polymarket championship/winner markets agAInst sportsbook futures odds.
Fetch outrights from The Odds API (_winner sport keys, e.g., basketball_nba_championship_winner) 搜索 Simmer for futures markets (e.g., "NBA championship", "Super Bowl winner") Match market questions to teams in the outrights data Compare sportsbook implied probability vs Polymarket price and trade divergence 设置up 环境 Variables Variable Required Default Description SIMMER_API_KEY Yes — Your Simmer API key THE_ODDS_API_KEY Yes — Free key from the-odds-API.com (500 req/month free) LIVE No false 设置 to true for real trades. Default is dry-运行. MIN_DIVERGENCE No 0.08 Minimum spread to enter a trade (8%) EXIT_SPREAD No 0.02 Exit when spread closes below this (2%) TRADE_AMOUNT No 10.0 Dollars per trade MAX_RESOLVE_DAYS No 30 Skip futures markets resolving beyond this (cAPItal lock-up) MIN_分享S_TO_SELL No 5.0 Polymarket minimum sell size API_TIMEOUT No 30 HTTP timeout in seconds SPORTS No 7 sports Comma-separated game-level Odds API sport keys FUTURES No 4 leagues Comma-separated futures sport keys 获取 a Free Odds API Key Go to the-odds-API.com 签名 up for the free tier (500 请求s/month) Copy your API key 设置 it: 导出 THE_ODDS_API_KEY=your_key_here First 运行 设置up
When a user first 安装s this 技能, walk them through these configuration choices before 运行ning:
API keys — Confirm SIMMER_API_KEY and THE_ODDS_API_KEY are 设置. Divergence threshold (MIN_DIVERGENCE) — Default is 8%. Lower values (e.g., 5%) find more trades but with thinner edges. Higher values (e.g., 10%) are more selective. Ask the user what level of aggression they prefer. Exit spread (EXIT_SPREAD) — Default is 2%. This is when the arb is considered closed and the position is sold. Tighter values exit sooner. Trade size (TRADE_AMOUNT) — Default $10 per trade. Ask the user what they're comfortable risking per position. Resolution window (MAX_RESOLVE_DAYS) — Default 90 days. Skip futures markets that resolve beyond this horizon. Shorter = less cAPItal lock-up, but may miss valid opportunities. Sports — By default 扫描s all major US sports plus EPL and MLS. The user can narrow to specific leagues if they prefer. Dry 运行 — 启动 with LIVE=false (the default) and review a few cycles of 输出 before going live.
ExplAIn each 设置ting and its trade-offs so the user can make an 信息rmed choice.
运行ning # Dry 运行 (default) — 记录s what it would trade python sports_edge.py
# Live trading LIVE=true python sports_edge.py
Example 输出 [Sports Edge] 扫描ning 7 sports + 4 futures... (dry_运行=True, min_divergence=8%) [Sports Edge] NBA: Found 6 games with odds [Sports Edge] Matched: "Will the Celtics win vs Pacers?" → Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers [Sports Edge] Polymarket YES: 0.58 | Books: 0.69 | Divergence: +0.11 [Sports Edge] DRY 运行: Would buy YES at 0.58 (edge 11%) — 10.0 [Sports Edge] Futures NBA championship: Found 30 teams in outrights [Sports Edge] Matched: "Will the Celtics win the 2026 NBA Champion" → Boston Celtics [Sports Edge] Polymarket YES: 0.12 | Books: 0.22 | Divergence: +0.10 [Sports Edge] DRY 运行: Would buy YES at 0.12 (edge 10%) — 10.0 [Sports Edge] Done. 2 opportunities found (dry 运行).