Polymarket Elon Tweets

Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader

Trade "Elon Musk # tweets" markets on Polymarket using X追踪er post count data.

When to Use This 技能

Use this 技能 when the user wants to:

Trade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically 设置 up @noovd-style bucket trading 检查 X追踪er pace and stats for current tweet 事件 监控 and exit existing tweet market positions 配置 bucket spread or entry thresholds How the Strategy Works

Polymarket 运行s weekly "How many tweets will Elon post?" 事件 with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:

获取 X追踪er pace — X追踪er 追踪s Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total Find center bucket — The bucket contAIning X追踪er's projected pace Buy adjacent buckets — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread) 检查 combined cost — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold) One bucket pays $1 — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs 设置up Flow

When user asks to 安装 or 配置 this 技能:

安装 the Simmer SDK

pip 安装 simmer-sdk

Ask for Simmer API key

They can 获取 it from simmer.markets/仪表盘 → SDK tab Store in 环境 as SIMMER_API_KEY

Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)

This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC) Store in 环境 as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY The SDK uses this to 签名 orders 命令行工具ent-side automatically — no manual 签名ing needed

Ask about 设置tings (or confirm defaults)

Max bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢) Max position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00) Bucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1) Exit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢)

Save 设置tings to config.json or 环境 variables

设置 up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)

Configuration 设置ting Env Variable Config Key Default Description Max bucket sum SIMMER_ELON_MAX_BUCKET_SUM max_bucket_sum 0.90 Only buy if cluster prices sum < this Max position SIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITION max_position_usd 5.00 Maximum USD per bucket Bucket spread SIMMER_ELON_BUCKET_SPREAD bucket_spread 1 Neighbors on each side (1 = 3 buckets) Smart sizing % SIMMER_ELON_SIZING_PCT sizing_pct 0.05 % of balance per trade Max trades/运行 SIMMER_ELON_MAX_TRADES max_trades_per_运行 6 Maximum trades per 扫描 cycle Exit threshold SIMMER_ELON_EXIT exit_threshold 0.65 Sell when bucket price above this Slippage max SIMMER_ELON_SLIPPAGE_MAX slippage_max_pct 0.05 Skip trade if slippage exceeds this Min position SIMMER_ELON_MIN_POSITION min_position_usd 2.00 Floor for smart sizing (USD) Data source SIMMER_ELON_DATA_SOURCE data_source x追踪er Data source (x追踪er) Order type SIMMER_ELON_ORDER_TYPE order_type GTC Order type: GTC (good-til-cancelled) or FAK (fill-and-kill)

Config priority: config.json > 环境 variables > defaults.

Quick Commands # 检查 account balance and positions python scripts/状态.py

# DetAIled position 列出 python scripts/状态.py --positions

API Reference:

Base URL: https://API.simmer.markets Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY Portfolio: 获取 /API/sdk/portfolio Positions: 获取 /API/sdk/positions 运行ning the 技能 # Dry 运行 (default — shows opportunities, no trades) python elon_tweets.py

# 执行 real trades python elon_tweets.py --live

# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance) python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing

# Show X追踪er stats only python elon_tweets.py --stats

# 检查 positions only python elon_tweets.py --positions

# View config python elon_tweets.py --config

# 更新 config python elon_tweets.py --设置 max_position_usd=10.00

# Disable safe防护s (not recommended) python elon_tweets.py --no-safe防护s

# Quiet mode — only 输出 on trades/errors (ideal for cron) python elon_tweets.py --live --quiet

# Combine: frequent 扫描ning, minimal noise python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet

How It Works

Each cycle the script:

Fetches active X追踪er 追踪ings for Elon Musk tweet 事件 获取s real-time stats: current count, projected pace, days remAIning 搜索es Simmer for matching tweet count markets (auto-导入s if missing) Finds the bucket matching X追踪er's pace projection Evaluates adjacent buckets (center ± spread) Entry: If sum of cluster prices < max_bucket_sum → BUY each bucket Exit: 检查s open positions, sells if any bucket price > exit_threshold Safe防护s: 检查s 上下文 for flip-flop 警告s, slippage Tagging: All trades tagged with sdk:elon-tweets for 追踪ing Auto-导入

If tweet count markets aren't on Simmer yet, the 技能 automatically 导入s them:

Derives the Polymarket event URL from the X追踪er 追踪ing title Uses the SDK 导入 端点 (supports multi-outcome 事件) 导入s all outcome buckets as a group Counts as 1 dAIly 导入 regardless of bucket count Smart Sizing

With --smart-sizing, position size is calculated as:

5% of avAIlable USDC balance (config