Polymarket Edge Trader

Polymarket Edge Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is a user-supplied fAIr YES probability for markets matching MARKET_查询 — remix it with your own 模型 输出, external API, or ML prediction. The 技能 handles all the plumbing: market discovery, 上下文 safe防护s, position sizing, trade execution, operator summaries, auto-redemption, and AION trade tagging. Your job is to provide the alpha.

设置up

安装 the AION SDK:

pip 安装 AIonmarket-sdk

Key Safe防护s (Built-In) Risk Alerts 防护: Skips new entries if briefing 报告s active risk alerts; 运行s de-risk 记录ic instead. Flip-Flop 检测ion: Rejects markets with excessive trading reversals or discipline 警告s from 上下文. Slippage Enforcement: Enforces maximum estimated slippage threshold before showing candidates. Market 上下文 检查: Fetches 警告s, edge analysis, and trading discipline from AION API; skips if risk 检测ed. Kelly Sizing: Uses Kelly-fraction bankroll 模型 with configurable multiplier (AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER) for position control. Auto-Redeem: Automatically clAIms payouts from resolved markets at each cycle 启动. Dry-运行 Default: Only submits live orders when --live is explicitly passed with 签名ed order payload. Public Reasoning: Every trade includes reasoning tied to edge 签名al, market 状态, and risk 指标. Jitter Polling: Daemon mode (--daemon) uses randomized wAIt intervals to avoid 同步hronized order bursts. What It Does 扫描s active AION Polymarket markets matching MARKET_查询 Scores each candidate agAInst 模型_PROBABILITY Picks the market with the largest absolute edge Skips trades when edge is too small, slippage is too high, briefing risk alerts are active, or AION warns about flip-flopping Sizes the position with a Kelly-style bankroll 模型 Prints an operator summary with risk 状态, decisions, and order 更新s 执行s through AIonMarket命令行工具ent.trade() when you explicitly provide --live and a 签名ed order payload Defaults MARKET_查询=bitcoin 模型_PROBABILITY=0.60 TAR获取_VENUE=polymarket MAX_MARKETS=25 MAX_STAKE_USD=50 MIN_EDGE=0.03 MAX_SLIPPAGE_PCT=0.15 启动ING_BALANCE_USD=1000 AION_BASE_URL=https://pm-t1.bxing更新.com/bvAPI AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER=0.25 AION_MIN_EV=0.03 WALLET_添加RESS= AION_签名ED_ORDER_JSON= How To 运行

Dry-运行 mode (default — no orders submitted):

python edge_trader.py

扫描 a different market with custom probability:

python edge_trader.py --查询 "fed" --probability 0.64

Show ranked candidates before selecting best:

python edge_trader.py --show-candidates

Daemon mode with jitter (for cron/automaton orchestration):

python edge_trader.py --daemon --poll-interval 60

Live trading (requires --live, wallet 添加ress, and pre-签名ed order JSON):

WALLET_添加RESS=0xYourWallet \ AION_签名ED_ORDER_JSON='{"maker":"...","签名er":"...","taker":"0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000","令牌Id":"...","makerAmount":"...","takerAmount":"...","side":"BUY","expiration":"...","签名ature":"...","salt":"...","签名atureType":0,"nonce":"...","feeRateBps":"0"}' \ python edge_trader.py --查询 "bitcoin" --probability 0.58 --live

Required 凭证s AION_API_KEY is always required WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is optional and only needed for self-custody Polymarket trading WALLET_添加RESS is required for user-scoped briefing and live order submission AION_签名ED_ORDER_JSON is only required for live order submission, because the AION SDK expects a complete 签名ed order payload Remix Ideas

The 技能's plumbing is fixed (safe防护s, sizing, execution, summaries). Your alpha is:

签名al replacement:

Replace 模型_PROBABILITY with your own ML 模型 输出, external API call, or ensemble forecast. Swap discover_markets() for briefing.opportunityMarkets (pre-curated high-质量 markets). Integrate a multi-模型 ensemble: call multiple probability 端点s and 聚合 them. Use sentiment analysis, weather data, or on-chAIn 指标 to derive fAIr probability.

Advanced position management:

添加 sell 记录ic: close existing positions when 签名al flips. Implement rebalance 记录ic around tar获取 portfolio weights. Use 获取_bankroll() to 扩展 position size dynamically with account growth. 添加 staggered entry: split Kelly fraction across multiple limit orders at different prices.

Extended safe防护s:

Tighten MIN_EDGE for high-frequency strategies; relax for lower-frequency. 添加 custom risk 过滤器s: skip markets with high volatility, thin liquidity, or specific conditions. Extend auto-redeem to other venues (Kalshi, etc.) by removing venue 检查s. Integrate external alerts: 暂停 trading if certAIn conditions are met from other 系统s.

Operational tweaks:

Adjust AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER for more conservative or aggressive sizing. Use --max-slippage-pct and MAX_STAKE_USD as dynamic parameters from a config file. 添加 custom telemetry: 记录 trade decisions to your own database or 报告ing 系统. Build a 命令行工具 wr应用er that spins up multiple 技能 instances with different queries.