Polymarket Copy Size Conviction Trader

Copy Size Conviction Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al uses portfolio concentration as a proxy for whale conviction. When a top trader commits a large fraction of their cAPItal to a single market, that is a stronger 签名al than raw position size or trade count. The 技能 handles all plumbing (leaderboard scrAPIng, activity reconstruction, concentration analysis, 签名al boosting, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha by tuning concentration thresholds.

Strategy Overview

Not all whale positions are equal. A trader who puts $100K into a market might be spreading $5M across 50 markets (low conviction) or concentrating $300K total into 3 markets (high conviction). This 技能 distin图形界面shes between the two.

Discover top wallets from the predicting.top leaderboard Reconstruct each wallet's portfolio from on-chAIn trade activity Measure portfolio concentration: position_cost / total_portfolio_cost per market 过滤器 positions where concentration exceeds MIN_CONCENTRATION threshold Boost trade sizing proportional to whale conviction level 验证 every trade agAInst conviction-based YES/NO threshold bands The Edge: Concentration as Conviction

Most copytrading 工具s treat all whale positions equally. A $50K position from a $5M whale (1% concentration) 获取s the same weight as a $50K position from a $150K whale (33% concentration). The second whale is clearly more convicted.

签名al 记录ic Leaderboard (top N wallets) | v For each wallet: Fetch 200 most recent trades Reconstruct open positions (buys - sells per market) Compute concentration = position_cost / total_portfolio_cost | v Across all wallets: Find markets where any whale has concentration >= MIN_CONCENTRATION 聚合: market -> [(wallet, side, concentration, cost), ...] 排序 by max concentration descending | v For each high-conviction market: Match to Simmer market cata记录 运行 compute_签名al() for base conviction (YES/NO threshold bands) 验证 whale side aligns with 签名al direction 应用ly concentration multiplier: conc_mult = 1 + min(CONCENTRATION_MULT - 1, concentration / 0.5) whale_boost = min(0.3, (num_whales - 1) 0.1) [if multiple whales agree] boosted_conviction = min(1.0, base_conviction conc_mult + whale_boost) size = max(MIN_TRADE, round(boosted_conviction MAX_POSITION, 2)) | v 执行 or paper-trade

Why This Works Concentration is observable: Unlike sentiment or conviction surveys, portfolio concentration is computed directly from on-chAIn data. It cannot be faked without moving real cAPItal. Asymmetric in格式化ion: Whales who concentrate are betting they know something. A 30% portfolio allocation implies the whale expects 签名ificant edge in that specific market. Multi-whale convergence: When multiple independent whales concentrate in the same market, the 签名al compounds. This is harder to game than a single whale's activity. Conviction alignment: The 技能 only trades when whale concentration aligns with the base YES/NO threshold 签名al, 预防ing blind copying into neutral or overpriced markets. Example 仪表盘 Market Whale Conc Side Size Will X h应用en by June 2026? 0xabc12... 32% yes $4,200 Federal rate cut in Q3? 0xdef34... 28% no $8,100 Federal rate cut in Q3? 0x789ab... 15% no $2,900 Bitcoin above $150K by July? 0xcde56... 22% yes $6,500 Major tech IPO in 2026? 0xfab78... 11% yes $1,800

In this example, "Federal rate cut in Q3?" has two whales with high concentration on the same side -- the multi-whale boost kicks in for stronger conviction sizing.

Safety 防护 Default What it does Paper mode ON No --live flag = simulated trades, zero risk MAX_POSITION $50 Cap per-trade size MIN_TRADE $5 Floor 预防s trivially small orders MAX_POSITIONS 8 Portfolio-level position limit MAX_SPREAD 10% Skip illiquid markets MIN_DAYS 5 Skip markets resolving too soon MIN_VOLUME $3,000 Skip thin markets YES/NO thresholds 0.38/0.62 Only trade within conviction bands MIN_CONCENTRATION 10% Ignore positions below this portfolio 分享 Side alignment ON Whale side must match 签名al direction 上下文_ok() ON 预防s exceeding max open positions Tunables

All parameters are configurable via SIMMER_ 环境 variables and the Simmer UI:

Env Var Default Description SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 50 Max position size in USD SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Min trade size in USD SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 3000 Min market volume in USD SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.10 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 5 Min days until resolution SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 YES threshold for conviction bands SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 NO threshold for conviction bands SIMMER_MIN_CONCENTRATION 0.10 Min portfolio concentration to qualify SIMMER_CONCENTRATION_MULT 2.0 Max multiplier from concentration SIMMER_LEADERBOARD_LIMIT 15 Top N wallets to analyze Remix Ideas Sector concentration: Only count concentration within a category (crypto, politics, sports) to find domAIn-specia列出 whales Conc