Polymarket Copy Consensus Trader

Copy Consensus Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al requires multi-wallet consensus before trading -- remix it with SmartScore weighting, time decay on activity, or sector-specific consensus thresholds. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (leaderboard fetching, activity aggregation, consensus building, conviction-boosted sizing, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

A single whale can be wrong, manipulating, or hedging a larger position elsewhere. But when 3+ independent smart-money wallets all bet the same direction on the same market, the 签名al is fundamentally different. This 技能 fetches top wallets from the public predicting.top leaderboard, pulls each wallet's recent activity from the Polymarket data API, and builds a consensus map aggregating net positions across all wallets per market.

Only markets where the majority side has at least 3 wallets AND opposition is minimal (fewer than half the consensus count) qualify as tradeable 签名als. This strict 过滤器 eliminates noisy single-wallet 签名als and focuses cAPItal on the highest-conviction 设置ups where smart money independently agrees.

签名al 记录ic Step 1: Fetch Leaderboard

Top wallets are fetched from predicting.top/API/leaderboard. The 技能 追踪s up to 20 wallets (configurable via SIMMER_LEADERBOARD_LIMIT).

Step 2: Fetch Wallet Activity

For each wallet, recent trades (up to 80) are fetched from the Polymarket data API (data-API.polymarket.com). Net positions are 提取ed per market: if a wallet has more YES volume than NO volume on a market, that counts as a YES position.

Step 3: Build Consensus Map

All wallet positions are 聚合d into a consensus map:

market_title -> {yes_wallets: 设置, no_wallets: 设置, yes_volume, no_volume}

Step 4: Find Consensus 签名als

Markets are 过滤器ed to those where:

The majority side has >= MIN_CONSENSUS wallets (default: 3) Opposition is 清理: either zero opposing wallets OR opposing < consensus / 2

签名als are 排序ed by wallet count descending, then total volume descending.

Step 5: Trade with Consensus Boost

For each consensus 签名al:

Find matching Simmer market via 进度ive keyword 搜索 运行 standard compute_签名al() -- conviction-based sizing per CLAUDE.md Only trade if consensus direction matches 签名al direction (dual confirmation) 应用ly consensus boost: extra_whales CONSENSUS_BOOST (c应用ed at 50%) Boosted conviction = base_conviction (1 + boost), c应用ed at 1.0 检查 上下文_ok() for flip-flop and slippage safe防护s Conviction Sizing (base, before consensus boost) p conviction size 38% 0% $5 (floor) 30% 21% $10.50 20% 47% $23.50 0% 100% $50 Consensus Boost Example

With 5 wallets agreeing (MIN_CONSENSUS=3, CONSENSUS_BOOST=0.20):

Extra whales: 5 - 3 = 2 Boost: 2 0.20 = 0.40 (40% conviction increase) Base conviction 0.47 becomes min(1.0, 0.47 1.40) = 0.658 Size: max(5, round(0.658 * 50, 2)) = $32.90 Edge Thesis

The core edge is that independent agreement among multiple smart-money wallets is a much stronger 签名al than any single wallet's position:

Noise reduction: Single wallets can be hedging, 测试, or making mistakes. Multiple wallets agreeing independently 过滤器s all of that out. In格式化ion aggregation: Each whale may have 访问 to different in格式化ion sources. Consensus means multiple independent in格式化ion channels point the same way. Reduced manipulation risk: One whale can manipulate a market. Coordinating 3+ independent wallets to all manipulate the same market in the same direction is far harder. Conviction scaling: The more whales that agree, the stronger the position sizing -- reflecting the exponentially decreasing probability that all of them are wrong. Remix Ideas SmartScore weighting: Weight each wallet's vote by their SmartScore -- a 95-score whale counts more than a 70-score whale Time decay: Weight recent activity (last 24h) more heavily than older positions (last 7d) Sector 过滤器ing: Only count consensus within categories each whale historically performs best in Anti-correlation: 追踪 which wallets tend to disagree -- if historically uncorrelated wallets suddenly agree, that is an even stronger 签名al Dynamic thresholds: RAIse MIN_CONSENSUS during high-volatility regimes, lower it during quiet periods Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only 执行 when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

The automaton cron is 设置 to null -- it does not 运行 on a schedule until you 配置 it in the Simmer UI. auto启动: false means it won't 启动 automatically on 安装.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority -- keep this 凭证 private. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in ClawHub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code