Polymarket Coffee Trader

Coffee Seasonal Trader

This is a remixable template The default 签名al requires no external API — it uses date-derived seasonal multipliers (frost calendar, harvest cycle, ENSO phase) 应用lied on top of standard price-threshold conviction sizing. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 签名al provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Coffee is one of the world's most weather-sensitive commodities — and one of the most predictably seasonal. Three structural patterns repeat every year, and Polymarket participants 系统atically misprice all three:

• Brazil frost window — Commercially damaging frost in Brazil's coffee belt (Cerrado Mineiro, Sul de Minas, Mogiana) is only physically possible during June–August. Polar AIr masses (friagens) push north from Patagonia into Brazil's southern highlands exclusively in winter. Yet retAIl traders price frost optionality into coffee price markets year-round. A market asking "will arabica hit $5?" in January embeds a frost premium that cannot materialize for six more months. We fade it. In July, we back the same trade at higher conviction.

• Brazil harvest cycle — The mAIn arabica harvest 运行s April–September. Post-harvest (October–January), supply is at its seasonal peak and well-understood by the market — price spike markets are overpriced. Pre-harvest (February–March), inventory draws down and supply anxiety is legitimate.

• ENSO phase (La Niña / El Niño) — La Niña brings drought stress to Brazil's coffee belt, tightening arabica supply. El Niño brings excess rAInfall to Vietnam, disrupting Robusta 记录istics. Current ENSO phase is 设置 via SIMMER_ENSO_PHASE env var (更新 quarterly from NOAA).

The Core Insight: Frost Optionality Has an Expiry Date

The single most 导入ant edge in this 技能:

Brazil frost is only possible in June, July, August.

A coffee price spike market in October through May contAIns frost optionality with zero meteoro记录ical value.

RetAIl doesn't know this. They price "could there be a frost?" as a year-round background risk. We know the frost calendar.

The historical record confirms: every major Brazilian coffee frost event (1975, 1994, 1997, 2000, 2021) occurred between June 15 and August 31. None have occurred outside this window in the modern record.

This gives us a 清理 seasonal on/off 签名al:

Period Frost possible? Our adjustment July Yes — peak risk 1.30x conviction June / August Yes — shoulder 1.15x conviction May / September No — but market transitioning 1.05x October – April No — meteoro记录ically impossible 0.80x (fade frost premium) 签名al 记录ic Default 签名al: Conviction-Based Sizing with Coffee Seasonal Bias Discover active coffee markets via keyword sweep (prices, crop, weather, futures) Gate: must be a genuine coffee market (_is_coffee_market) Gate: spread ≤ MAX_SPREAD, days to resolution ≥ MIN_DAYS Compute coffee_seasonal_bias(question) = frost_mult × harvest_mult × enso_mult, c应用ed 0.65–1.40x Conviction = (threshold - p) / threshold × bias (YES) or (p - threshold) / (1 - threshold) × bias (NO) Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × MAX_POSITION) The Three Multipliers

Frost window multiplier (date-derived, no API needed):

Month Label Multiplier July JULY(peak-frost) 1.30x June, August FROST-SHOULDER 1.15x May, September FROST-MARGINAL 1.05x October – April NO-FROST 0.80x

Harvest cycle multiplier:

Period Label Multiplier February – March PRE-HARVEST 1.10x April – June HARVEST-启动 1.05x July – September HARVEST-PEAK 1.00x October – January POST-HARVEST 0.90x

ENSO multiplier (设置 via SIMMER_ENSO_PHASE):

ENSO phase Market type Multiplier la_nina Arabica / Brazil 1.15x (drought stress → bullish) la_nina Robusta / Vietnam 1.00x (neutral) el_nino Robusta / Vietnam 1.15x (记录istics disruption → bullish) el_nino Arabica / Brazil 1.00x (mixed) neutral Any 1.00x Combined Examples (TODAY: March 22, 2026 — neutral ENSO assumed) Scenario Frost Harvest ENSO Final bias Arabica price spike — March, neutral 0.80x 1.10x 1.00x 0.88x Brazil frost event — July, La Niña 1.30x 1.00x 1.15x 1.40x cap Robusta supply — October, El Niño 0.80x 0.90x 1.15x 0.83x Arabica production — June, neutral 1.15x 1.05x 1.00x 1.21x How Sizing Works

With defaults (YES_THRESHOLD=38%, MIN_TRADE=$5, MAX_POSITION=$30):

Price p Conviction (no bias) July + La Niña (1.40x) Mar off-season (0.88x) 38% (at threshold) 0% $5 floor $5 floor 30% 21% $8.8 $5.5 20% 47% $19.7 $12.4 5% 87% $30 (cap) $23 Keywords 监控ed coffee price, arabica price, robusta price, coffee futures, arabica futures, KC futures, coffee above, coffee below, coffee reaches, coffee exceed, coffee production, coffee crop, coffee harvest, coffee yield, brazil coffee, vietnam coffee, colombia coffee, ethiopia coffee, arabica production, robusta production, coffee bags, million bags, coffee frost, frost event, frost damage, brazil frost, coffee drought, coffee rAInfall, cerrado, sul de minas, coffee belt, coffee freeze, coffee, arabica, robusta, coffe