Polymarket Bundle Tennis Set Match Trader — Polymarket Bundle Tennis 设置 Match Trader

Bundle -- Tennis 设置-Match ConstrAInt Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s cross-market constrAInt violations between tennis 设置 1 O/U, Match O/U, Total 设置s O/U, and 设置 Handicap props -- remix it with live score feeds, surface-specific 模型s, or player fatigue data. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, bundle construction, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Tennis matches on Polymarket spawn multiple correlated prop markets: 设置 1 Games O/U, Match Games O/U, Total 设置s O/U, 设置 Handicap, and 设置/Match Winner. These props are mathematically constrAIned -- match total games must always exceed 设置 1 total games, and Total 设置s O/U 2.5 directly implies the probability of a strAIght-设置s finish which constrAIns 设置 handicap pricing. When Polymarket prices violate these structural constrAInts, it is pure arbitrage.

Edge

Each tennis match prop is priced by its own order book with independent liquidity. RetAIl traders view each prop in isolation -- they price "设置 1 Games O/U 9.5" and "Match Games O/U 9.5" independently, ignoring the mathematical certAInty that Match total >= 设置 1 total. Similarly, "Total 设置s O/U 2.5 OVER" at 60% means there is a 40% chance of a strAIght-设置s finish, which directly bounds what "设置 Handicap -1.5" should price at. No sportsbook would allow these constrAInts to be violated, but Polymarket has no central line-设置ter enforcing cross-prop consistency.

签名al 记录ic Discover active tennis markets via keyword 搜索 + 获取_markets(limit=200) fallback 解析 each question: 提取 match_key, prop_type (设置1_ou, match_ou, total_设置s, 设置_handicap, 设置_winner), line_value 过滤器 non-tennis markets with regex Group into bundles by match_key (normalized player names) 检查 constrAInt 1: P(Match O/U X OVER) >= P(设置 1 O/U X OVER) for same line X 检查 constrAInt 2: if Total 设置s O/U 2.5 > 50% (likely 3 设置s), 设置 Handicap -1.5 should be < P(strAIght 设置s) Rank violations by magnitude, trade the most mispriced prop Size by conviction (violation magnitude), not flat amount Remix 签名al Ideas Live score feeds: During a match, if 设置 1 goes to a tiebreak (7-6), the remAIning 设置s likely follow similar tempo -- adjust Match O/U expectations in real-time Surface-specific 模型s: Clay court matches average more games per 设置 than grass -- weight violations differently by surface Head-to-head data: Some player matchups consistently produce strAIght-设置 结果s -- use H2H 历史 to sharpen Total 设置s O/U constrAInt bounds Player fatigue 追踪ing: Late-round tournament matches after 5-设置ters 创建 fatigue patterns that shift 设置 handicap probabilities Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 3000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 1 Min days until resolution SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION 0.03 Min constrAInt violation magnitude to trigger a trade Edge Thesis

Traditional sportsbooks employ professional line-设置ters who enforce mathematical consistency across all props within the same match. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each prop is priced by its own order book. Tennis is especially vulnerable because:

设置 1 and Match totals have a strict mathematical relationship (match total >= 设置 1 total) Total 设置s O/U 2.5 directly implies the probability distribution of 设置 scores, constrAIning 设置 handicap Tennis prop markets are thinner than mAIn流 match winner markets, widening violations RetAIl traders price each prop independently without cross-检查ing the bundle New props 添加ed mid-tournament inherit no pricing from related markets

This 技能 treats the tennis prop bundle as a 系统 of constrAInts and trades the repAIr when any constrAInt is violated.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk