Polymarket Bundle Cs2 Maps Trader

Bundle -- CS2 Maps BO3 Arbitrage Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al 检测s inconsistencies between individual CS2 map winner probabilities and the BO3 match winner market -- remix it with team Elo ratings, map pool veto data, or live scoreboard feeds. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, bundle construction, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

CS2 matches on Polymarket 列出 separate markets for each map winner and the overall BO3 winner:

"Counter-Strike: NAVI vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner" = 55% (NAVI) "Counter-Strike: NAVI vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner" = 60% (NAVI) "Counter-Strike: NAVI vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner" = 50% (NAVI) "Counter-Strike: NAVI vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Katowice" = 58% (NAVI)

The individual map probabilities constrAIn the BO3 probability via the binomial 模型. When they don't match, the BO3 market is mispriced.

Edge

P(BO3 win) must equal P(win M1)P(win M2) + P(win M1)P(lose M2)P(win M3) + P(lose M1)P(win M2)*P(win M3). RetAIl traders price the BO3 market independently from individual maps, creating structural mispricings that this 技能 exploits.

签名al 记录ic Discover CS2 markets via 获取_markets(limit=200) as primary + keyword 搜索 fallback 解析 each question: 提取 (match_key, map_number, team_a, team_b) for map winners 解析 BO3 winner markets: 提取 (match_key, team_a, team_b) Group into match bundles: one BO3 market + its individual map markets For each bundle with at least Map 1 + Map 2 + BO3 winner: Calculate implied BO3 probability from map probabilities (binomial 模型) If Map 3 market exists, use its probability; otherwise assume 0.5 Compare implied vs actual BO3 market probability If difference > MIN_VIOLATION: trade the BO3 market toward map-implied probability Size by conviction (CLAUDE.md formula), not flat amount Remix 签名al Ideas HLTV Elo ratings: Pull team ratings and recent head-to-head records -- teams with map pool advantages 创建 asymmetric Map 3 probabilities that the default 0.5 assumption misses Map veto prediction: Use historical veto patterns to predict which maps will be played -- if a team always bans Inferno, the Map 3 probability on Inferno should be different from Mirage Live scoreboard data (PandaScore API): 流 real-time round scores during Map 1 -- if one team is dominating, Map 2 and BO3 probabilities should shift before the market adjusts Map-specific win rates: Fetch team win rates on specific maps from HLTV -- if FaZe has 70% win rate on Nuke but the market prices Map 2 at 55%, that is an 添加itional edge layer Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 5000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION 0.05 Min implied-vs-actual BO3 probability difference to trade Edge Thesis

Traditional sportsbooks employ quantitative 模型s that enforce consistency between individual game prices and series prices. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each market is priced by its own order book. CS2 BO3 markets are particularly vulnerable because:

Individual map markets attract map-specific bettors who don't consider the BO3 implication BO3 markets attract series-level bettors who don't decompose into individual maps Map 3 probability is often unknown or assumed at 50%, creating 系统atic errors Live match flow on Map 1 shifts map probabilities before the BO3 market adjusts Tournament 格式化 changes (upper/lower bracket) affect team motivation asymmetrically across maps The binomial constrAInt is mathematical -- map probabilities must sum correctly to produce the BO3 probability

This 技能 treats the map winner probabilities as 输入s to a binomial 模型 and trades the BO3 market when it diverges from the 模型's 输出.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk