Polymarket 24h Sports Line Curve Trader

24h Sports Line Curve Trader

This is a template. The default 签名al is implied O/U curve violation 检测ion across sports markets -- remix it with 添加itional sports, line types, or cross-venue feeds. The 技能 handles all the plumbing (market discovery, curve construction, trade execution, safe防护s). Your 代理 provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket 列出s multiple over/under lines for the same sporting event:

"Team A vs Team B O/U 5.5" = 50% "Team A vs Team B O/U 6.5" = 46% "Team A vs Team B O/U 7.5" = 29%

RetAIl trades each market as an isolated bet. But to获取her, these markets form an implied probability curve -- higher totals must always be less likely for the OVER side.

This 技能 reconstructs that curve and finds where it is mathematically broken.

The Edge: Sports Line Curve Arbitrage Violation Type 1: Monotonicity Break

The probability of going OVER a lower line must always be greater than or equal to going OVER a higher line:

P(O/U 5.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 6.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 7.5 OVER)

If a higher line is priced above a lower line, the curve is broken -- pure structural arbitrage.

Violation Type 2: Tennis 设置 vs Match Inconsistency

For tennis, the match total always equals or exceeds the 设置 1 total. Therefore:

P(Match O/U X OVER) >= P(设置 1 O/U X OVER)

If a 设置 1 O/U market is priced higher than the equivalent Match O/U market, the relationship is violated.

Why This Works RetAIl trades in silos -- most users view each O/U line independently and do not cross-reference the full line l添加er No market maker enforcement -- unlike sportsbooks, there is no central entity mAIntAIning curve consistency across lines Mathematical, not opinion -- the violations are provable inconsistencies in the implied distribution 应用lies across sports -- football, basketball, tennis, esports (kills, maps), baseball, hockey 签名al 记录ic Discover all sports O/U markets via keyword 搜索 (O/U, total goals, total kills, etc.) 解析 each question: 提取 game/match name, O/U line value, scope (设置 or match) Group into curves by (game, scope) For each curve with 2+ points: 检查 monotonicity: P(O/U X OVER) must decrease as X increases 检查 tennis 设置-vs-match consistency Rank violations by magnitude Trade only violations that also pass threshold gates (YES_THRESHOLD / NO_THRESHOLD) Size by conviction (violation magnitude), not flat amount Safety & Execution Mode

The 技能 defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk python trader.py Paper (sim) None Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

auto启动: false and cron: null mean nothing 运行s automatically until 配置d in Simmer UI.

Required 凭证s Variable Required Notes SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value 凭证. Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in ClawHub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade at full conviction SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 5000 Min market volume 过滤器 (USD) SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES only if market probability <= this SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO only if market probability >= this SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION 0.03 Min curve violation magnitude to trigger a trade Edge Thesis

Traditional sportsbooks have professional line-设置ters who enforce consistency across O/U lines for the same game. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each O/U market is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This 创建s 系统atic micro-inconsistencies in the implied distribution, especially when:

New O/U lines are 添加ed at previously un列出ed values Large directional flow pushes one line without propagating to neighbors Market makers leave gaps during low-liquidity hours Tennis 设置-level markets diverge from match-level markets

This 技能 treats the O/U line l添加er as a probability curve and trades the repAIr.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk