Bayesian Reasoning

Activate when: user says 'Bayesian', 'prior', 'posterior', 'base rate', 'likelihood ratio', or 'update my belief'; someone treats 'the evidence is consistent with X' as proof of X; a high-stakes decision rests on interpreting a test result, security alert, fraud flag, A/B result, or hiring signal; base rates are being ignored in favor of a vivid story. Do NOT activate when: the decision is genuinely deterministic and probabilities do not apply; there is no data or domain knowledge to anchor a prior (Bayes amplifies information, it does not create it from nothing).

by @deciqai (deciqAI)·MIT-0